The New Monroe Doctrine

BY: Neri Briceno

The world as we know it has always been ruled by the strong. This has manifested itself through individuals, empires, and most recently, nations. If we trace this back to biblical times, the tribes of what is now the Middle East fought for control of land and resources and, to some extent, to spread religion. The theme of fighting primarily for land and resources has therefore remained throughout the centuries. The Romans did it to the Egyptians and to most of the known world, the Mongols to the Chinese, Native Americans to each other in the Americas, the Ottoman Empire during World War I, the British Empire in the 1900s, and the Nazis versus the Allies during World War II.

With the advent of the 20th and 21st centuries and post–World War II, we began seeing an additional element to the traditional theme of fighting over land and natural resources. We started seeing the idea of ideology and religious convictions being added. With the end of the Second World War, two behemoths emerged—the U.S. and the USSR—and both were totally opposite to each other in almost every conceivable way imaginable. Both vied not so much in an overt way but more so in a covert manner; only this time the fight was not so much for land, but more for control of a vast array of resources, and even more narrowly for the spread of ideology by using what I will only describe as “unconventional ways” to “convince” nations to adapt their principles. From there, the world was never the same.

The Cold War saw covert conflicts explode into open warfare in Southeast Asia, South and Latin America, Eastern and Western Europe, the Middle East, and the entire African continent. The world by the late 1990s would be divided into two distinct mindsets: a capitalist and socialist system led by two massive superpowers. With the collapse of the USSR, the U.S. maintained the sole title holder since the 1990s, and now with the emergence of China, whether we like it or not, the global hierarchy will stay the same—or at least in our lifetime. Nations will continue to compete to be at the top of the global food chain, and they will continue challenging each other for the top title.

Either fortunately or unfortunately, that remains the new world order, and the challenge now remains for smaller countries like Belize—with fewer resources, less landmass, small populations, weak militaries, dependent economies, and a smaller footprint on the global stage—to survive. Who they align with has now become even more critical, and there is no walking the fence line. That is the challenge, because any misstep of allying with the wrong camp and you become a target of the other.

With the largest oil reserves in the world, dispel any illusions that all the major powers of the world do not want a say in Venezuela’s oil resources. It is totally to the contrary, because all do. Make no mistake that there was a reason China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba were embedded in Venezuela and were deeply influential in its economy, military, society, and governance—and trust me, it was not for the love of the Venezuelan people. It was all about natural resources, control, and nothing else. And believe me when I say that if the North Koreans were not physically there, they were busy taking notes

Love, hate, or be indifferent toward the Americans—or as most are, especially toward President Trump—but I much prefer a country that is generally aligned with my beliefs and principles to be influential in Venezuela than the likes of the Axis of Evil. I am not advocating a remaking or rebranding of colonialism, imperialism, or satellite states, but am more comfortable if the U.S. and its allies are in my backyard.

For those who are enamored by the benefits of socialism, and especially the younger generations, it is rooted in a couple of things: one, the broader liberal media that paints capitalism as something evil; a culture of entitlement that has been rammed down their throats; and no idea or appreciation of history. The outcome has become love and admiration for those who want to destroy us, plus appreciation for countries that are hell-bent on terminating us, our countries, and our ways of life, and also with a healthy dose of dislike for the institutions and governance that make us free.

The awful truth that has become hard for people to digest is that socialism does not work, and it never will. As Margaret Thatcher once said, socialism does not work because eventually you run out of spending other people’s money. While in its young history Belize has faced, and to some level continues to face, rampant levels of corruption, it has always had free elections, there is still a vibrant opposition, and we have never seen our civil liberties curtailed or lived under an oppressive intelligence or security apparatus. Maybe that’s why socialism may seem attractive—because we have never experienced it. The scourge of socialism and oppression was exactly what the Axis of Evil that was embedded in Venezuela represented.

The rationale behind the American operations goes far beyond oil, and it has more to do with influence in their own backyard. Oil is more the means to control that influence. Controlling Venezuelan oil does a couple of things. One, it effectively reverses some of the Chinese economic fortunes. As a resource-poor nation with a huge manufacturing base, the one thing China lacks is energy, and for that reason it constantly scours the entire globe for it. Venezuela, with the largest oil reserves and like ideology, was a natural choice.

The U.S. now, by controlling this oil and in turn selling to China and dictating prices, automatically creates a huge windfall to the U.S. and Venezuelan economies. A less productive China means less income, which therefore diminishes its chances of matching the U.S. as a competitive superpower. But China would not be the only casualty. Cuba, with an economy on the ropes and also heavily dependent on Venezuelan crude, would naturally capitulate in short notice since its cheapest source of energy would be gone, or at least in the short term. Its next source would be Mexico, which by now would be extremely reluctant to sell fuel to them, and the alternatives—Iran and Russia—are so far away that the price may not be attractive because of huge freight and insurance costs.

Additionally, with Iran’s and Russia’s oil industries in critical need of modernization and repairs, plus Russia having the added burden of being at war with a hugely underestimated opponent, it further weakens them. Russia, for all its heavy and menacing talk, is but a regional Eastern European power still thinking it is a global superpower.

It is an open secret that Iran, Russia, China, and Cuba had huge influence in Venezuela in three primary areas: the oil industry, the military, and both its domestic and foreign intelligence apparatus. This is a direct threat not only to the United States but to all those non-socialist-leaning nations in the hemisphere, including Belize. This was something that the Americans would not tolerate because of the basic fact that they all see the U.S. as a potential enemy.

While there are those who say that the extraction of Maduro by the military now opens the idea for other nations like those in the Axis of Evil to do the same, that would be the thinking of those who don’t know what is out there militarily. Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran, who basically had Venezuela as their minion, were probably as surprised as the rest of the world when this operation took place. This extraction was also a test of the military and intelligence assets that Venezuela had at its disposal through its Axis allies, and it failed dramatically.

Maduro was extracted while Russian, Chinese, and Iranian defense systems were in place, their intelligence assets were on the ground, and they were also embedded as physical security. Trust me when I say that they have not become emboldened to do the same, but are scrambling back to the drawing board and reanalyzing the capabilities of the U.S. military machinery. While all have sent stern letters of protest to the United Nations and the international community about the extraction of Maduro, none has and none will take any action because they are all incapable.

Russia has its hands full with Ukraine, Iran with Israel, and China - who with all its saber-rattling, now has serious doubts about crossing the straits and entering Taiwan. They are fully aware that Taiwan is a formidable foe - which just last month received one of its largest supports when the Japanese Prime Minister said that if the Chinese were to invade, they would come to their rescue.

With over $100 billion that China has invested in Venezuela, you would think they would have done more. With all their talk of South-to-South solidarity, shared destiny, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation, when things got tough and it was time for action or substance, what did Beijing do? They did absolutely nothing and instead hid behind a press release and moved on. China is not a partner, but rather is looking for who to exploit, and that’s the reason I have always maintained that the minute you see any Belizean administration showing the propensity to switch relations to China, vote them out.

Love it or not, our hemisphere has become a safer place for the values that we have as a nation and for the advancement of freedom. This hemisphere should be free from the threat of despots, oppression, and subjugation by those nations that only want to exploit, control, and mold us in their own twisted ways. I am happy to see the influence of Cuba, Iran, China, and Russia drastically reduced in this hemisphere. I shed no tears for Maduro, and the means by which he was extracted are befitting of the way he was treating the Venezuelan people.

This should be a lesson-learned moment for all Belize. How often, as citizens, do we complain about the way we are governed—the governmental and institutional corruption, the plundering of our economy, the lack of opportunities, nepotism, the illicit rise of certain classes—and feel powerless to do anything? It is an open secret that there are people in every facet of this country that have benefited from the illicit drug trade and helped all those planes land.

How often have we as Belizeans wished that someone would come and whisk them away to face justice because of how frustrated we get, because no matter how we vote, things never seem to change? This is that wake-up moment for them, and like the Chinese, Russians, Cubans, and Iranians, they are probably wetting their pants.

The world is changing whether we like it or not, or whether we don’t want to see it and call it what you may—but might will rule, and that rule can either be via the Chinese or from the Americans. Take your pick. It’s as simple as that, because this is the stark reality that we face.

It’s all about the people!