CARICOM Unlikely to See Major US Policy Shift Despite Democratic Wins

CARICOM countries should expect little immediate change in United States foreign policy despite Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress, according to veteran Caribbean diplomat Sir Ronald Sanders, who says President Donald Trump will retain considerable authority over regional affairs.

In an analysis published November 5, Sanders cautioned Caribbean governments against interpreting the November 3 midterm election results as a fundamental change in Washington's approach to the region.

Democrats secured majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate, with the new Congress scheduled to assume office in January 2027. The outcome places both legislative chambers under Democratic control while Trump remains president.

Although the political shift could provide opportunities for increased congressional oversight, changes in federal spending and greater dialogue on Caribbean concerns, Sanders argued that the administration's principal foreign-policy priorities are unlikely to change.

He explained that Congress controls legislation, appropriations and oversight, but the president retains substantial authority over diplomacy, immigration enforcement and aspects of international trade.

Sanders identified Washington's renewed emphasis on strategic dominance in the Western Hemisphere, including migration control, narcotics trafficking and limiting the influence of competing powers, as priorities likely to continue regardless of congressional control.

For CARICOM, this means navigating an American administration whose regional policies may remain largely intact while seeking opportunities to influence congressional decisions.

Trade represents one potential area of engagement.

Sanders noted that US tariffs have affected the competitiveness of Caribbean exports, while rising import prices, shipping costs and supply-chain disruptions have increased economic pressures across the region.

He argued that Caribbean governments should emphasize their economic importance to Washington, pointing to an approximately US$7 billion American merchandise trade surplus with CARICOM in 2025.

Security cooperation is another area where shared interests could support continued engagement.

Drug trafficking, illegal firearms, organised crime and illicit financial flows threaten both Caribbean societies and the United States. Sanders maintained that effective cooperation must address weapons trafficking and criminal proceeds alongside narcotics interdiction.

He also identified Haiti's continuing security crisis and developments affecting Cuba as matters requiring sustained regional and international attention.

Development financing presents another opportunity for CARICOM to advance its longstanding position that vulnerability to natural disasters should influence access to international financing, rather than relying primarily on national income classifications.

Sanders argued that stronger disaster resilience benefits both Caribbean economies and American commercial interests.

He also raised concerns about restrictive American visa policies affecting some Caribbean nationals, warning that such measures can disrupt business travel, education, tourism and medical access.

For Belize, these regional concerns carry particular relevance through trade, security cooperation, migration and exposure to hurricanes and other natural disasters.

Ultimately, Sanders suggested that the new congressional balance offers CARICOM additional avenues for engagement rather than a guaranteed policy reversal.

His assessment is that Caribbean governments must continue working with the Trump administration while strengthening relationships with both political parties in Congress, emphasizing areas where American and Caribbean interests converge.