Global Sugar Prices Plunge as Belize Mulls Local Price Hike

Global Sugar prices are forecasted to decline, with leading sources such as World Bank estimating a 15% decline per pound from between 2025 and 2026.

According to the World Bank's Commodity prices report, last year, world sugar fetched approximately USD$0.20 per pound. However, forecasts for 2026 place this figure closer to $0.17 per pound.

Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that in September prices for this key commodity hit its lowest point in the last four years.

"The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 99.4 points in September, down 4.2 points (4.1 percent) from August and as much as 26.9 points (21.3 percent) from a year ago, reaching its lowest level since March 2021 (96.2 points)," reported the FAO.

"The drop was driven by higher-than-expected sugar production in Brazil, resulting from large crushing volumes and increased use of sugarcane for sugar production in key southern growing regions. Additional downward pressure on prices came from favourable harvest prospects in India and Thailand, following ample monsoon rains, combined with expanded plantings," the FAO added.

Global benchmarks continue to soften as supply expectations build. FAO’s latest update for September confirms sugar at a four-year low, citing improved harvests in Brazil and favourable outlooks in India and Thailand; this aligns with the broader Food Price Index easing in the same period.

Futures markets have reflected the shift. In early November, New York No.11 and London No.5 contracts hit multi-year lows after Brazil’s crop agency (Conab) lifted its 2025/26 sugar output estimate to 45 million metric tons, reinforcing expectations of ample export supply.

In Belize, cane revenue tracks world returns. Cane farmers’ payments ultimately depend on sugar sales realizations, which move with international prices; when benchmarks fall, the export-driven portion of mill revenue contracts unless offset by higher recoveries, efficiencies, or hedging. In that context, sustained international softness would normally translate into tighter cane payments over the crop year.

Domestic policy, however, is moving in a different direction to stabilize the sector. Authorities have signalled a review of regulated prices for plantation white and brown sugar and discussed removing price controls on retail-packaged sugar—measures intended to cushion farmers from input-cost spikes, climate-related losses, and disease pressures.