Belize’s international reserve levels are presently at a good place, a recent Central Bank of Belize (CBB) report confirmed.
In the CBB’s January report, the import cover—this is the number of imports that could be covered by a country’s foreign exchange—is 5.3 months. This is, as stated by CBB, “well above the three-month threshold”.
The three-month threshold is a monetary economic indicator which states that if a country can cover more than three months of their imports, they are in good standing, and anything below three is unfavorable.
Complementing the CBB’s report, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF)’s baseline projection provided in its April 2021 concluding statement advises that Belize’s monthly import coverage is at 4.3, and is not likely to fall below the three-month threshold until 2024, all thing being equal.
This IMF forecast is made under the baseline primary deficit outlook of -6.4% of GDP in FY 2021/22, which gradually declines over the next few fiscal years. Interestingly, according to the Approved Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure for fiscal year 2021/2022, with the current fiscal consolidation measures proposed, the government of Belize is targeting a primary deficit is at -2.9%.